IMF Mission Reviews Armenia as Lenders See Up to 6% Growth

An International Monetary Fund mission has held talks in Yerevan on Armenia's fiscal policy and reform agenda as part of the second review of the country's Stand-By Arrangement, at a time when regional lenders are lifting their expectations for Armenian growth.

The programme under review

Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Khachatryan met an IMF delegation led by Nathan Porter on 28 September and outlined macroeconomic developments and the main lines of fiscal policy, the government said. Days earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan discussed the review with mission head Alexander Tieman.

The IMF board approved the 36-month arrangement on 1 December 2025 for SDR 128.8 million, about $175 million or 100% of Armenia's quota. The authorities have said they will treat it as precautionary, meaning they do not plan to draw on it unless needed. In practice, the programme works as a policy anchor and a signal to markets and rating agencies. Moody's moved Armenia's Ba3 outlook to positive in July.

Growth running ahead of forecasts

The Eurasian Development Bank now expects Armenian GDP to grow 6% in 2026, while the EBRD has held its forecast at 5.5% (see our EBRD forecast round-up). Economic activity rose 7.7% in January to July, above initial projections, according to the World Bank's monthly update. Gross reserves hit a record $6.5 billion in August.

Inflation eased slightly to 4.4% in August from 4.5% in July. The Asian Development Bank kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 4.2%. The central bank nonetheless raised its policy rate to 6.75% this month, a move aimed at keeping inflation expectations anchored as wages and public spending rise.

The fiscal question

The IMF's focus on fiscal planning is timely. The government has approved a doubling of senior officials' pay at a cost of about AMD 25 billion, and capital spending on roads and the Syunik region is increasing with EU support. Financing that without a wider deficit depends on revenue growth staying strong. Armenia is also asking the EBRD and ADB to support SME exports and public-private partnerships, which would shift some investment off the budget.

The main risks remain external: slower growth in Russia and a reversal of the re-export trade that lifted Armenian GDP after 2022. The fund's statement at the end of the mission will show how much fiscal room it thinks Yerevan has.

Sources: Government of Armenia via ArmBanks.am, 25 and 28 September 2026; EDB; EBRD; ADB; World Bank.