Green Energy Corridor to Europe Put at €22.1bn

The planned Caspian-Black Sea-Europe Green Energy Corridor, which would carry renewable electricity from Azerbaijan through Georgia and under the Black Sea to Romania and Hungary, will need about €22.1 billion of investment, according to an investment presentation by the Green Energy Corridor Power Company (GECO) reported by APA on 24 October. Transmission infrastructure accounts for €14.3 billion of that total, or about 64.7%.

The same presentation states that the feasibility study has been completed and approved by the governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary, and that the project is moving into the development phase. GECO is inviting potential investors and partners to express interest.

Three cables, three dates

GECO plans three high-voltage direct current lines, built in phases, each with a capacity of 1.3 GW. The first is due to be commissioned in 2032, the second in 2036 and the third in 2040. A preliminary schedule published on GECO's website, as Trend reported, routes the first link from Baku via Ksani and Anaklia to Constanța Sud, extended onshore to Albertirsa in Hungary. The second would run Baku-Tskaltubo-Poti-Domnești and the third Baku-Tskaltubo-Poti-Constanța Sud. Each Black Sea submarine cable would be about 1,120 km long, laid at depths of up to about 2,200 metres, with converter stations at Ksani and Tskaltubo connecting to the Georgian grid. The schedule is to be confirmed in the roadmap to a final investment decision.

The figures follow a forum in Baku, "Green Energy Corridor: From Feasibility Study to Implementation", where the study was presented to international investors, lenders and suppliers for the first time. Minister of Energy Parviz Shahbazov spoke at the opening. According to Trend's account of the forum, the final investment decision is targeted for 2029, the route is about 3,000 km long, and the corridor would provide 4 GW of transmission capacity, support at least 8 GW of renewable generation and deliver about 20 billion kWh a year to Europe from 2040, cutting carbon emissions by up to 3.6 million tonnes.

Nataly Mouravidze, Head of the EBRD Resident Office in Azerbaijan, said in a video posted by the Energy Ministry: "This project can indeed be very attractive to financial investors." She added that the institutions' financial resources must be combined "with the experience and expertise of the private sector." The World Bank, EIB, EBRD, ADB, BSTDB and IsDB attended, along with companies including ACWA Power, Masdar, SOCAR Green, TotalEnergies, Siemens Energy, ABB and Prysmian.

From study to financing

The project rests on a strategic partnership agreement that Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary signed in Bucharest on 17 December 2022. At the 12th ministerial meeting in Baku on 8 July 2026, CESI S.p.A. presented the final results of the feasibility study, and GECO was tasked with drafting a roadmap of the work needed before a final investment decision, according to the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan. The participants also signed a joint letter to Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, backing the project's inclusion in the third list of EU Projects of Mutual Interest and Projects of Common Interest. The next ministerial meeting is due in Romania in November 2026.

The planned business model is a hybrid of regulated and commercial components, relying on long-term power purchase agreements and private capital. Work also continues to include the project in the TYNDP 2026 and to secure Project of Mutual Interest status.

What it means for business

With transmission making up almost two thirds of the €22.1 billion estimate, the first large contracts are likely to be for cables, converter stations and grid reinforcement. The hybrid regulated and commercial model means investor returns will depend on how the four governments and the EU treat tariffs, offtake and Project of Mutual Interest status.

For Azerbaijan, the corridor is the export outlet that would justify a larger renewable build-out than the domestic market can absorb, including the 11 solar and wind plants planned by end-2027. For Georgia, which hosts both converter stations, the project overlaps with the Black Sea submarine cable work it is already funding. The 2029 investment decision is the date that will show whether the study's numbers attract the private capital the model needs.