Finance
National Bank of Georgia Holds Refinancing Rate at 8.25% for Third Straight Meeting
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The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) kept its refinancing rate at 8.25% on September 9, 2026, the third consecutive hold since a preventive hike in May.
The decision in numbers
- Refinancing rate: 8.25%, unchanged.
- August headline inflation: 5.6%, against a 3% target.
- Core inflation: 3.6%; services inflation: 4.4%.
- NBG full-year 2026 inflation forecast: 5.2%.
The regulator said the "moderately tight monetary policy stance" aims to limit risks to inflation expectations and second-round effects, so inflation returns quickly to 3% once the supply shock fades. It cited rising energy prices linked to Middle East tensions as the main pressure.
How the cycle got here
On May 6, the NBG raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points from 8%, where it had stood since May 2024. Acting president Natia Turnava called the move "clearly preventive in nature." The hike was expected to raise payments for roughly 250,000 borrowers. April inflation then stood at 5.9%. The bank held at its July 29 meeting and again on September 9.
The tightening came against exceptionally strong growth: the NBG cited 10.7% in March and 9.1% for the first quarter. The Asian Development Bank has since raised its 2026 Georgia forecast to 6.3%.
Implications for lenders and borrowers
With headline inflation still well above target but core inflation much closer to it, the bank is signalling patience rather than further tightening. Borrowers with lari loans linked to the refinancing rate face no new increase for now, while banks retain healthy margins in a high-growth economy. A shift in either direction depends on whether energy-driven price pressure spreads into core categories.
The next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for October 21. Newly published September data show headline inflation at 5.6% and core at 3.7%, a small uptick in the core measure that analysts will weigh ahead of that decision.
Sources: National Bank of Georgia, via Interfax and JAMnews; Trend.
